Jet Copies

933 words 4 pages
JET Copies Problem

The simulation of Jet Copies can be done by generating random numbers from given probability distributions. The different steps of this simulation and assumption made are explained below. 1. Simulation for the repair time.

It is given that the repair time follows Repair Time (days) Probability 1. .20

2. .45

3. .25

4. .10

-----

1.00

To generate a random number from the above distribution, we use the following procedure.
Generate a random number denoted by r2 from between 0 and 1. If this generated random number is less than or equal to 0.2 take repair time = 1.
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Answer to the problem From the above table we can see that under this simulation the lost revenue for in year (when total break down time exceeds 52 weeks) is $16826.4, which is greater than $12,000. Since the simulated loss of revenue due to machine downtime during 1 year is more than $ 12,000, the decision should be to purchase a backup copier. Since we have done the simulation only for one year the result of this study is not fully reliable. So we have to repeat the simulation for a large number of times to obtain proper results. This is because the time between break downs, repair time and revenue loss are probabilistic, the simulation results could exhibit significant variation. The only way to be sure of the accuracy of our results is to simulate each system many times and compute an average result. Another limitation is the assumptions we have made. If any of the assumptions are violated the result of this study may become different. For

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