Arundel : Options Case
After evaluation of the proposed acquisition of the movie sequel rights, we recommend to offer movie studios as a per-movie price to purchase the sequel rights for their entire portfolio of movies the studios are going to produce over the next year.
Arundel should make an offer to buy sequel rights as the average NPV (on a per film basis ) is $5.51 mn (this is the value calculated using real options method).
Hence, we should pay a price below $5.51mn. As per informal inquiries made by us, the studios would be tempted to accept the price of $2mn or more and would not even consider a price below $1mn.
We propose that we should negotiate for the price of $2mn. This would give us a profit of …show more content…
Secondly the options model helps us get a gauge of the probability of the first film (if we use the returns of first film in the option price) before taking a decision on the sequel. We are given how the sequel is expected to perform based on cash flows of previous sequels. From here we can get the expected net payoff of the sequel. However, if we used the DCF model, we would have to settle down with this net payoff as the value of the sequel. In contrast, the options model gives us the opportunity to calculate a “probability of success” of the first film, and multiply this probability with the net payoff of the sequel. Thus, options model is bound to give us a more accurate value of the sequel.
Black Scholes Model
It makes more sense for Arundel Partners to buy a European call option on the sequel than an American call option. This is because Arundel Partners can invest in a sequel only in Year 3, while the success factor of the first film will be known by the end of Year 1. Therefore, there is no advantage for exercising an option to make a sequel earlier than Year 1.
In theory, Valuation of Sequel Rights = probability that first film is a hit * net payoff of sequel
Probability that first film is a hit = European call option price
The parameters of this European call option on sequel rights are (Please note: we