Ukraine crisis briefing paper
Should Russia expand beyond Crimea and further into Ukraine.
Tension in Ukraine began to rise when then the president Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal proposed by the European Union regarding trade agreements. Late last year when this deal was in consideration, Viktor Yanukovych began to express his doubts in the final stages about signing the trade agreement. For everyone in Ukraine it was clear that Vladimir Putin pressured Viktor Yanukovych so much that essentially Putin made Yanukovych reject the deal. Just days later on 17th December Putin agrees to buy 9bn pounds of Ukraine’s debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third. Just hours after Yanukovych rejected EU’s proposal, …show more content…
Russian system itself provokes Putin to take further action. Fair elections in Russia are now rarity, autocrats secure it through economic growth, anti West nationalism or war. Putin has now prioritized nationalism and military and has put oil aside for the time being. A country becomes very vulnerable to economic openness and investments leave the country. In order to retain support, the regime further escalates war tensions.
The situation in Ukraine is already critical and it does not need much to escalate what already is a crisis. However, if or rather when Putin decides to invade Ukraine, the situation could potentially escalate into a full on warfare. Any ill advised action that Russia is prepared to take would put them on a straight collision course with the west and this is something they can ill afford given their current economic state is frankly poor. Ukraine’s territorial integrity can be legally preserved by an international declaration which applies to Europe and the US. NATO also has a pact with Kiev which would require them to send some sort of assistance to Kiev in case Russia does decide to take military action.
One another undeniable